Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-19 0.013371 0.015122 0.017017 0.019220 0.021712 0.024445 0.027669
2025-10-26 0.010449 0.012822 0.015607 0.019118 0.023429 0.028557 0.035127
2025-11-02 0.008858 0.011494 0.014763 0.019120 0.024781 0.031901 0.041557
2025-11-09 0.007599 0.010320 0.013852 0.018777 0.025480 0.034306 0.046846
2025-11-16 0.006838 0.009662 0.013474 0.019004 0.026839 0.037577 0.053466
2025-11-23 0.006106 0.008938 0.012897 0.018847 0.027586 0.039998 0.059047
2025-11-30 0.005677 0.008585 0.012781 0.019295 0.029186 0.043700 0.066735
2025-12-07 0.005040 0.007850 0.012029 0.018709 0.029167 0.044984 0.070871
2025-12-14 0.004567 0.007314 0.011513 0.018416 0.029533 0.046830 0.075972
2025-12-21 0.004105 0.006747 0.010892 0.017887 0.029458 0.047947 0.079959
2025-12-28 0.003940 0.006641 0.010984 0.018501 0.031260 0.052176 0.089354
2026-01-04 0.003745 0.006464 0.010941 0.018877 0.032682 0.055874 0.098141
2026-01-11 0.003574 0.006318 0.010946 0.019347 0.034327 0.060116 0.108318
2026-01-18 0.003317 0.006001 0.010631 0.019236 0.034948 0.062647 0.115693
2026-01-25 0.003105 0.005744 0.010396 0.019238 0.035758 0.065555 0.123976
2026-02-01 0.002862 0.005408 0.009992 0.018894 0.035894 0.067236 0.130089
2026-02-08 0.002723 0.005252 0.009902 0.019122 0.037112 0.070996 0.140465
2026-02-15 0.002544 0.005006 0.009624 0.018964 0.037569 0.073344 0.148261
2026-02-22 0.002457 0.004930 0.009659 0.019415 0.039249 0.078166 0.161388
2026-03-01 0.002254 0.004607 0.009190 0.018826 0.038796 0.078743 0.165883
2026-03-08 0.002101 0.004374 0.008880 0.018530 0.038911 0.080455 0.172861
2026-03-15 0.001937 0.004102 0.008472 0.017998 0.038487 0.081022 0.177434
2026-03-22 0.001900 0.004096 0.008607 0.018616 0.040545 0.086912 0.194029